State of Real Estate – 2017

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THE STATE OF REAL ESTATE 2017

As always, I hope this finds you and yours in good times and in good health.  Here’s the official 2017 State of Real Estate. Figuring out what the real state of Real Estate is and where it is headed is akin to forecasting where a hurricane will land and how bad it will be.  While the nation’s economy has recovered somewhat, Ct still has a ways to go. Ct. is just not a business friendly state, nor is it not tax friendly to the elderly. People are moving to states with no income tax and lower probate fees. Bottom line, more people are slowly moving out of the state than in. More important I am seeing a population shift as well. Shoreline towns have experienced drops in population. New Haven has seen growth. In 6 years from Jul 1, 2009 to Jul 1, 2015 Guilford’s population decreased by 119, Clinton’s by 562 and Madison’s by 601 and Branford by 869. Meanwhile New Haven has increased population by 6,992 people. I don’t think that necessarily means that people are moving out of the shoreline to New Haven, it means that new buyers are choosing an urban setting than suburban. You can see Guilford is less affected. I think the new school’s impact is huge. Also both Yale and Yale New Haven Hospital encourage shorter commutes and sustainable transportation which does not bode well for towns farther out.  Not great news all around but not too bad for Guilford.

What does that mean for real estate along the shore? Less people, less demand. So, on the supply side.  Using Guilford as an example, I have always said there is parity between buyers and sellers when there are 175 listings on the market during the height of the spring market. The tide has turned a bit as sales were up in Guilford from 294 sales during the 2015 to 316 in 2016. Results; the number of listings are down. In June 2014 there were 340 listings on the market, in 2015 there were 306 and in June 2016 there were 247. Good sign but progress is very slow. We have a ways to go to get to parity. Madison and Clinton, with larger population drops, looks far more serious.  Realtors have to be honest with sellers about market conditions and pricing. Too many properties have been on the market for a long time, many with their 2nd or 3rd  Realtor. # 1 should have been more honest. On the buyers/demand side. While it is slowly getting better for sellers, there is still a large inventory for buyers to choose from. If you want a good deal (who doesn’t?), buy with your head and not just your heart. Best to get a full document approval before you buy, not just a “prequalification”. Giving the seller the comfort of knowing they are dealing with one who can financially perform will result in a lower price for you. Get current inre the buying process before you start looking. Things could be a little or a whole lot different now since you last bought. For example, inspections are far more in depth than ever. Laws have changed. If you have to sell in order to buy, be careful! Let’s talk!

Observations. 1) Avg sale price in Guilford is $401,000. 2) I see prices firming up in the lower price bracket – under $325,000.  3) Interest rates have nudged up a bit but not so much as this time it is indicative of a stronger economy, and a stronger economy favors housing. Rates are still near historic lows. 4)  I see more transactions falling apart as a result of inspections. Realtors should attend with their buyers so issues can be easily explained and overcome. Buyers need to be made about realistic expectations of an inspection. 5) Banks and appraisals are making life difficult. 6) Some buyers prefer to rent as opposed to buying.

Check out our web site Sunset-Creek.com. Easy to negotiate, chock full of great information and some fun stuff. We are local and have a combined 130 years of experience. Meet Siena! Get a $500 credit at Sunset Storage.  Give us a call for anything, FREE advice, contractor recommendation, or just stop by for a cup of coffee.

Allen B. Jacobs, GRI, Broker, Owner

 

 

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